The reason to downvote you is not because your rationale is necessarily "illogical", but because 1) it's speculation, and 2) it's better to spend your speculative effort defending and supporting the good guys than the bad guys.
I come to HN to read views that make me uncomfortable and push my pre-existing assumptions. I started off pretty negative on Snowden but have changed my views over time based on the strength of arguments I've seen here by those who think very differently from me. I'd never downvote something that was genuine and earnest no matter how disagreeable.