I get your point, but I'm talking about a multi-decade time horizon. My impression is that emerging markets are just lagging the first world, not permanently trapped in 1995.
Even if they were, I'm not sure my point's different: if Microsoft's major future market is only those parts of developing nations where bandwidth is unreliable, they're pretty much doomed. That's a niche business, and won't yield the kind of revenue that lets them sustain their hegemony.
I'm not sure I agree with you though that emerging markets are niche... I'm not an expert in economics but I suspect there may be a sense in which first worded is niche... Even more so in your several decade time horizon.
Oh, I don't think many poorly networked emerging markets will stay niche. But in going from emerging to emerged, they're going remain poorly connected niches.
Even if they were, I'm not sure my point's different: if Microsoft's major future market is only those parts of developing nations where bandwidth is unreliable, they're pretty much doomed. That's a niche business, and won't yield the kind of revenue that lets them sustain their hegemony.