"Speak confidently as if you are right, but listen carefully as if you are wrong."
I hate-hate-hate this advice. When I assert something confidently, I'm willing to put money on it.
The first time I ran into someone I respected who was confidently wrong, it threw me for a loop. It makes you seem like a blowhard bullshitter! Guessing is fine, but say it's a guess.
Edited to add: I suppose this is a variant of Cunningham's Law, but I still hate it.
I read it more like a variation of "strong opinions weakly held".
It makes sense to have conviction on something based on a mental model or experience. However, you should usually try and listen to others because they can improve your mental model of the world.
Patrick Collison has a piece of advice like this. It's something like when you hear someone you respect or admire say something you disagree with, you will automatically try and think about why they are wrong, but it is usually always good to try and think about what they believe about the world that would lead them to think this is true.
I just think its one of those areas where different people need different advice.
We can draw a spectrum called "confidence bias". On one end of the spectrum are your "blowhard bullshitters". At the other end of the spectrum are people who are so scared to be seen that they keep themselves small.
You know where on the spectrum you are. Aim toward the middle.
People can make honest mistakes, and be certain they are right when it's not so.
A person is only a bulshitter when they know they don't know the topic, but still speak radiating confidence. It's just lying, implying you know things when you don't know them.
Often the people who know the limits of their knowledge overcompensate for it when speaking with others. There's a lot of "I think", "it should", "I may be wrong" and other noncommittal hedging to cover the slimmest of chances and be on the safe side. It goes beyond simply conveying the known risks/probabilities clearly and objectively.
To someone in the same domain, all of those caveats are commonly accepted/implied, so they become tiresome and muddy the points being made.
To someone outside the domain, it unnecessarily erodes confidence in the supposed domain-expert speaker's abilities and recommendations. It's even worse when put up against someone else does speak with confidence. I've lost count how many times I've seen that leading to stakeholders accepting a suboptimal solution.
It's the contrast between what primordial lizard brains want. And what reality actually is.
Often I see:
Lizard brain wants: Simple, agreeable, opinions from authority. Stated confidently.
Reality: Nobody is completely sure. Probably requires some nuanced discussion and critical thinking.
Problem is, if someone expresses an unconfident opinion. And I reckon I see this all the time:
Primordial lizard brain computes the message as:
"This person isn't knowledgeable. Reduction in status."
IMO there isn't a good way in life to say "I don't know" about a topic. Without primordial lizard brains treating that as a reduction in status.
It's a huge problem.
I think our brains are just wired to be attracted to simple answers, have a bias for action over discussion. And avoid deep, reflective, critical conversations.
I sometimes like seeing who will call me out when I’m speaking confidently.
I have to reaaaaaaaaaallly dumb things down for that to happen, in person. Its not even people ignoring its like people willing to repeat the incorrect thing I said!
I only noticed when I was making deadpan jokes and pepple couldnt tell. And so it began.
I had the same experience, but(!) I've concluded over time that the extra "I guess", "I think", "Probably" just makes my opinions seem weaker and get disregarded. Everybody else presents their opinions as 100% fact, even when they're not sure.
I dunno if you're on the autism spectrum, I am and I think that contributes towards not wanting to write things that aren't 100% true, but I don't think it is actually a contructive thing to do since everyone implicitly understands you might be wrong.
I hate-hate-hate this advice. When I assert something confidently, I'm willing to put money on it.
The first time I ran into someone I respected who was confidently wrong, it threw me for a loop. It makes you seem like a blowhard bullshitter! Guessing is fine, but say it's a guess.
Edited to add: I suppose this is a variant of Cunningham's Law, but I still hate it.